Key Points

• The Aussie Dollar after a sharp decline found support near 0.7570 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7588 on the hourly chart of AUDUSD.
• Recently in Australia, the New Motor Vehicle Sales for Oct 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
• The outcome was above the forecast of +0.5% as there was a rise in sales by 1% (YoY).

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar was in a major downtrend and traded below the 0.7650 and 0.7600 support levels against the US Dollar. The AUDUSD pair even traded below 21 hourly simple moving average, but later found support near 0.7570.

The pair started an upside move and traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7650 high to 0.7570 low. Moreover, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7588 on the hourly chart.

The pair is now above the 21 hourly SMA and is currently finding sellers near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7650 high to 0.7570 low. A break above the 0.7610 level would open the doors for more gains in the near term.

Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales

Recently in Australia, the New Motor Vehicle Sales for Oct 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was positioned for the New Motor Vehicle Sales for Oct 2017 to increase by around 0.5% compared with the same month a year ago.

The actual result was above the forecast of +0.5% as there was a rise in sales by 1%. Looking at the monthly change, there was no change in the sales in Oct 2017 compared with the last decline of 0.6% (revised).

Overall, the AUDUSD pair is trading with a positive bias and it might trade above 0.7610 in the near term.

Key Points

• The US Dollar made a nice downside move and traded below the 112.50 support against the Japanese Yen.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 112.55 on the hourly chart of USDJPY.
• Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for Oct 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance.
• The outcome was below the forecast of ¥330.0B as there was a trade surplus of ¥285.4B.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a downside move from the 113.80-114.00 resistance area against the Japanese Yen. The USDJPY pair traded below the 113.00 and 112.80 support levels to close below the 21 hourly simple moving average.

The pair traded as low as 111.91 and is currently correcting higher. It is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.20 high to 111.91 low. Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 112.55 on the hourly chart.

An intermediate resistance is near the 112.50 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 113.20 high to 111.91 low.

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total

Recently in Japan, the Merchandise Trade Balance Total figure for Oct 2017 was released by the Ministry of Finance. The market was positioned for a trade surplus of ¥330.0B less than the last ¥670.2B.

The actual result was below the forecast of ¥330.0B as there was a trade surplus of ¥285.4B. The Imports of goods and services rose 18.9% in Oct 2017, less than the forecast of 20.2%. Moreover, the Exports of goods and services rose 14.0% in Oct 2017, less than the forecast of 15.8%.

Overall, the USDJPY pair is likely to struggle and it will most likely trade below the 112.00 support in the near term.

Key Points

• The Aussie Dollar started a downside correction from the 1.1131 high against the New Zealand Dollar.
• There is a major contracting triangle forming with support at 1.1070 on the hourly chart of AUDNZD.
• Recently in Australia, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (7 November 2017) were released.
• There was nothing much in the minutes released for November 2017.

AUDNZD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar made a nice upside move recently and tested the 1.1130 resistance area against the New Zealand Dollar. The AUDNZD pair started a downside correction and moved below the 1.1100 support area and the 21 hourly simple moving average.

The pair traded as low as 1.1057 and is currently correcting higher. It traded above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1131 high to 1.1057 low. It seems like there is a major contracting triangle forming with support at 1.1070 on the hourly chart.

The pair is currently struggling to clear the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1131 high to 1.1057 low. Once there is a close above 1.1100 and the 21 hourly SMA, the pair would resume its uptrend and move back towards 1.1130.

RBA Meeting Minutes

Recently in Australia, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (7 November 2017) were released. The market was not looking for any major hawkish tone in Nov 2017 statement.

The actual statement was in line with the forecast. Commenting on the labor market, the report stated that:

Turning to the labour market, members observed that conditions had been surprisingly strong over 2017. Employment growth had been running well above growth in the working-age population and, in preceding months, had been concentrated in full-time employment.

Overall, the AUDNZD pair might attempt an upside break as long as it is above the 1.1070 in the short term.

Key Points

• The New Zealand dollar is gaining momentum above the 0.6840 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6822 on the hourly chart of NZDUSD.
• Recently in New Zealand, the Retail Sales report for Q3 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand.
• The outcome was below the market forecast of +0.4%, as there was a rise of 0.3% in Sales (QoQ).

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar made a nice upside move and traded above the 0.6800 resistance against the US Dollar. The NZDUSD pair is now well above the 0.7840 level and the 21 hourly simple moving average, which is a bullish sign.

During the upside, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6822 on the hourly chart. The pair recently traded as high as 0.6878 from where a correction wave was initiated. It has already tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.6804 low to 0.6878 high.

It seems like the pair remains supported above the 0.6850 and 0.6840 levels in the near term.

New Zealand Retail Sales

Recently in New Zealand, the Retail Sales report for Q3 2017 was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was looking for an increase of 0.4% in sales in Q3 2017 compared with the previous quarter.

The actual result was below the market forecast of +0.4%, as there was a rise of 0.3% in Sales. This was also lower than the last increase of 2%. The report stated that:

After adjusting for price and seasonal effects, total retail sales volumes rose 0.2 percent with an almost even split of movements over the 15 industries. This quarter’s rise followed a 1.8 percent increase in the June 2017 quarter.

Overall, the NZDUSD pair might correct lower a few pips, but it remains supported above the 0.6840 level.

Key Points

• The Euro after a sharp decline found support near 131.20 against the Japanese Yen.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 131.50 on the hourly chart of EURJPY.
• Recently in Japan, the foreign bond investment (Nov 17, 2017) report was released by Ministry of Finance.
• The outcome was above the market forecast as the foreign bond investment came in at ¥231.3B.

EURJPY Technical Analysis

The Euro remained in a downtrend and it recently traded below the 131.80 support area against the Japanese Yen. The EURJPY pair traded towards the 131.00 handle where buyers appeared and later the pair started an upside correction.

During the upside, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 131.50 on the hourly chart. The pair also managed to move above the 21 hourly simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 132.44 high to 131.20 low.

It might soon gain momentum above 132.00 and trade towards the 132.40 level. An intermediate resistance is around the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 132.44 high to 131.20 low. On the downside, the 131.65 level and the 21 hourly SMA are support zones.

Japan’s Foreign Bond Investment

Recently in Japan, the foreign bond investment (Nov 17, 2017) report was released by Ministry of Finance. The market was looking for the foreign bond investment to be around ¥100B.

The actual result was above the market forecast as the foreign bond investment came in at ¥231.3B. Moreover, the foreign investment in Japan stocks came in at ¥-324.5B compared with the last revised ¥183.2B.

Overall, the EURJPY pair is trading with a positive bias and will most likely move towards the 132.20-40 levels in the near term.

Key Points

• The US Dollar after a sharp decline found support near 0.9785 against the Swiss Franc.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9800 on the hourly chart of USDCHF.
• Recently in the US, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Nov 2017 (Prelim) was released by Markit Economics.
• The outcome was below the market forecast as there was a decline in the PMI from 55.3 to 54.7.

USDCHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar declined heavily this past week and traded below 0.9860 against the Swiss Franc. The USDCHF pair was under a lot of pressure and it also broke the 0.9800 handle to close below the 21 hourly simple moving average.

The pair traded as low as 0.9786 and later started an upside correction. It moved above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.9800 on the hourly chart. At present, it is testing the 0.9815 resistance and the 21 hourly simple moving average.

The pair has to settle above the 21 hourly SMA and break the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9947 high to 0.9786 low for further gains in the near term.

US Services PMI

Recently in the US, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Nov 2017 (Prelim) was released by Markit Economics. The market was looking for the PMI to increase from 55.3 to 55.5.

The actual result was below the market forecast as there was a decline in the PMI from 55.3 to 54.7. Moreover, the US PMI monthly Composite posted a decline from the last reading of 55.2 to 54.6, but both are well in the expansion levels.

Overall, the USDCHF pair might soon break 0.9815 and the 21 hourly SMA to gain further in the near term.

Key Points

• The Aussie Dollar started a downside move after trading near 0.7645 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 0.7610 on the hourly chart of AUDUSD.
• Recently in the US, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for Nov 2017 was released.
• The outcome was below the market forecast as there was a decline in the index from 27.8 to 19.4.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar was in a decent uptrend and it recently traded as high as 0.7645 against the US Dollar. The AUDUSD pair started a downside move after testing 0.7645 and moved below the 0.7620 support and the 21 hourly simple moving average.

The pair broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7522 low to 0.7645 high. Moreover, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 0.7610 on the hourly chart, opening the doors for more declines.

The pair might continue to trade lower and the next support on the downside is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7522 low to 0.7645 high at 0.7575.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Recently in the US, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for Nov 2017 was released. The market was looking for the index to decline from the last reading of 27.6 to 24.0.

The actual result was below the market forecast as there was a decline in the index from 27.8 to 19.4. The report added that:

Texas factory activity continued to expand in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 10 points from its October reading but remained elevated at 15.1.

Overall, the AUDUSD pair remains at a risk of a downside break below the 0.7600 support area in the near term.

Key Points

• The US Dollar is gaining pace and is currently well above the 1.2800 handle against the Canadian Dollar.
• There is a major ascending channel forming with support at 1.2810 on the hourly chart of USDCAD.
• Recently in the US, the Housing Price Index for Sep 2017 was released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
• The outcome was below the market forecast of +0.6% s there was a rise in the index of 0.3% (MoM).

USDCAD Technical Analysis

The US Dollar made good ground recently and traded above 1.2800 against the Canadian Dollar. The USDCAD pair was able to break the 1.2750 and 1.2780 resistance levels to settle above the 21 hourly simple moving average.

The pair traded as high as 1.2825 recently and corrected towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2755 low to 1.2825 high. It seems like the pair is following a major ascending channel with support at 1.2810 on the hourly chart.

As long as the pair is above the 1.2810-1.2800 support area, it might continue to move higher towards 1.2850 in the near term.

US Housing Price Index

Recently in the US, the Housing Price Index for Sep 2017 was released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The market was looking for the index to rise by 0.6% in Sep 2017 compared with the previous month.

The actual result was below the market forecast of +0.6% s there was a rise in the index of 0.3%. This was also lower than the last revised increase of 0.8%. The report added that:

U.S. house prices rose 1.4 percent in the third quarter of 2017 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI).   House prices rose 6.5 percent from the third quarter of 2016 to the third quarter of 2017.  FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September was up 0.3 percent from August. .

Overall, the USDCAD pair is supported on the downside and it will most likely move above 1.2830 in the near term.